Enye: Iindlela zengqesho e-United States kule minyaka ilishumi izayo (ingxelo kaMcKinsey)

a. Ngokuqhelekileyo, iUnited States iya kuqhubeka ikhula kwingqesho kule minyaka ilishumi izayo.

b. UMcKinsey uqikelela ukuba umsebenzi uya kuqhubeka ukhula kwimimandla yokhathalelo lwempilo, iteknoloji ye-STEM, ukudala kunye nokulawula, ishishini kunye nomthetho, ulawulo, imfundo kunye noqeqesho lomsebenzi, inkonzo yabathengi kunye nokuthengisa, ulawulo lwepropathi, ezolimo, ukwakhiwa, kunye nezixhobo kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo.

c. Impilo kunye nokukhula kwemisebenzi enxulumene ne-STEM iphezulu kune-30%. Ukukhula kwe-STEM akunzima ukukuqonda. Ukwanda kwenani lezempilo kunye nezikhundla zonyango ikakhulu kuba abantu bafuna ukuphila ubomi obunempilo ukuze bandise ixesha labo lokuphila, kwaye ukwandiswa kobomi kukhokelela ekugugeni kwehlabathi.

d. Ufakelo kunye nokugcinwa koomatshini, inkonzo yoluntu, umgca wokuhlanganisa kunye nabasebenzi bokusebenza koomatshini, iinkonzo zokutya, kunye nabasebenzi baseofisini abasisiseko baya kuphulukana nemisebenzi yabo ngenxa yobukrelekrele bokwenziwa kule minyaka ilishumi izayo.

UMcKinsey uqikelela imisebenzi ekhula ngokukhawuleza kwiindawo ezintlanu eziphambili zobugcisa, ukudala, ubutyebi, inkxaso yentlalo-ntle, kunye nokhathalelo lwempilo kule minyaka ilishumi izayo.

a. Itekhnoloji yeFrontier: abaphuhlisi besoftware

b. Udidi lwendalo: abaqulunqi bangaphakathi, i-multimedia kunye ne-animators, kunye nabayili bemiboniso, njl.

c. Ulawulo lobutyebi: ingcali yezondlo; umrhwebi sebenzisa ingcali yefiziyoloji; umphathi wobutyebi, njl.

d. Inkxaso yezentlalo neemvakalelo: abaqeqeshi, iklinikhi / ukubonisana, kunye neengcali zengqondo zesikolo, njl.

e. Ukhathalelo lwempilo: ingcali yezomzimba; umongikazi; umncedisi kagqirha; ugqirha umncedisi wokhathalelo lomntu, njl.

Kwixesha elizayo lomsebenzi, abasebenzi abaninzi baya kufuneka babe nobuchule obuphezulu bokuqonda (ukudala, ukukwazi ukuphatha ulwazi olunzima ukuxazulula iingxaki), intlalontle kunye nonxibelelwano (izakhono ezisebenzayo, ubunkokeli kunye nokulawula), kunye nobuchule bobugcisa (ikhono lokucwangcisa / ukucwangcisa idatha).

Eyesibini: Ulwalamano phakathi kwamagunya amakhulu ehlabathi luya kuba nzima ngakumbi kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo

a. Amazwe amathandathu amakhulu emhlabeni: i-United States, i-China, iRashiya, i-European Union (ngokubanzi, amandla ayo okusebenza alingana nelizwe elikhulu), iJapan, i-Indiya.

I-Brazil ayizange ibalwe, nangona inkulu ngokwaneleyo ukuba ibe lilizwe elikhulu, ngelishwa, amandla ayo okwenza izinto aphantsi.

Ihlathi laseAmazon owona mphunga mkhulu emhlabeni liseBrazil, kwaye uMlambo iAmazon, izintso zomhlaba, ukwaseBrazil. Atyebe kangakanani amanzi? Nakwixesha elomileyo, umthamo wawo wamanzi uphindaphindeka kayi-8 kunoMlambo iYangtze.

Indawo eBrazil kukuba iimeko zintle kakhulu. Ukuba ilunge kakhulu, kuya kuba lula ukuba neengxaki: ukuxengaxenga kunye nekhono elilambathayo lolungelelwaniso, nenkqubela phambili yabantu ngokusisiseko ijongwa ngamandla ombutho.

IRashiya inabemi abambalwa ngokwentelekiso abantu abazizigidi ezili-142 kunye nomlinganiselo wokuzalwa we-0,67 kuphela. Umfazi akanakuba namntwana; abemi baseYurophu naseJapan nabo bayaluphala. Ngokwembono yabemi, izibonelelo, kunye nezakhono zentlangano yelizwe, imeko yaseTshayina, eUnited States, naseIndiya ingcono.

b. Ikamva lobudlelwane beSino-Japan kufuneka libe yingxaki kakhulu

EJapan, mna ngokobuqu ndicinga ukuba yeyona nto inzima kuwo onke amazwe ehlabathi ukwamkela ukunyuka kweTshayina, kuba iJapan ineengqondo ezimbini ezingenayo amanye amazwe, ubuhlanga bubudenge obunxamnye neTshayina, elinye bubugebenga obunzulu kakhulu.

Imfuneko yokuba iJapan ibe nenzuzo yetekhnoloji kukuba amaTshayina anqabile ukufunda. Logama nje amaTshayina eqala ukufunda, yinto nje yexesha ngaphambi kokuba afumane itekhnoloji.

Uloliwe waseJapan ohamba ngesantya esiphezulu ubizwa ngokuba yiShinkansen, kwaye bavakalelwa kukuba babodwa ehlabathini. Ngoku bazi ngokucacileyo ukuba uloliwe ohamba ngesantya esiphezulu waseTshayina ungcono kunabo. IFransi, iJapan kunye neTshayina zezona nkqubo zithathu zikaloliwe zihamba ngesantya esiphezulu ehlabathini. Singabona babalaseleyo. IShinkansen yaseJapan inesantya esiphezulu seekhilomitha ezingama-246 ngeyure, iFransi ineekhilomitha ezingama-272, kwaye eTshayina, ingaphantsi kweekhilomitha ezingama-300 ngeyure. Ngokwemigangatho yaseTshayina, akukho siporo sihamba ngesantya esiphezulu eJapan. Isantya seekhilomitha ezingama-246 singabizwa njani ngokuba nguloliwe ohamba ngesantya esiphezulu?

I-China lilizwe elilungileyo phakathi kwamagunya amakhulu. IJapan ngokwenene yadlula impazamo, kodwa ayizange ibone impazamo, ngoko ikamva lobudlelwane baseSino-Japanese kufuneka libe yinkathazo kakhulu.

C. Ubudlelwane baseSino-Indian nabo kufuneka bube bunzima kakhulu kwixesha elizayo

Le yingxaki yokwenyani ngenxa yongquzulwano lwemida. Emva koko ngokufanelekileyo, siye savuka ngaxeshanye kwaye sikwimeko yokhuphiswano lobuchule.

Ezintathu: Amagunya aphakathi kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo afanele ukuhoywa ngakumbi

Engqondweni yam, amagunya amane aphakathi esifanele sinikele ingqalelo ekhethekileyo kuwo kwixesha elizayo yiVietnam, i-Indonesia, i-Iran neTurkey.

a. Viyethnam

Ushishino lwaseVietnam kufuneka lube luhle. Inamandla okwenza imizi-mveliso, yaye inabemi abangaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-90, abaza kuthi kungekudala babe ngaphezu kwezigidi ezili-100. Isiseko sabemi sikhona kwaye amandla oshishino akhona.

Iziphumo zamanani eOlimpiki ezizwe ngezizwe zaphuma, uMzantsi Korea ubekwe kwindawo yokuqala, iChina yabekwa kwindawo yesibini, ze iVietnam ibe kwindawo yesithathu. Ndicinga ukuba iVietnam iselilizwe elinamandla kakhulu, kwaye ke isicwangciso sayo sozakuzo sihle kakhulu, esifanelwe ingqalelo.

b. Indoneshiya

Indawo yase-Indonesia ibalulekile, kwaye ingazuza ngokunyuka kwe-China ne-Indiya. Iziko lobuchule lase-United States lifikile apha kwakhona, kwaye la mazwe mathathu anempembelelo kakhulu aya kuba apha kwixesha elizayo. Unokusebenzisa la mandla. I-Indonesia ngokwayo inesiseko esikhulu sabantu, izixhobo ezifanelekileyo kunye nokusingqongileyo, kunye neemeko ezilungileyo zengingqi.

c. Iran

I-Iran inempucuko ende, kwaye ilifa layo lenkcubeko ye-5000 lihle kakhulu. Inani labantu beli lizwe likhulu kakhulu, kwaye umhlaba welizwe ongaphezu kwe-1.6 yezigidi zeekhilomitha zeekhilomitha awuncinci. Ndicinga ukunyuka kwe-Iran, iqhawe lokuqala yi-United States, kwaye eyesibini yeyayo.

Ngapha koko, iIran yayingakhululekanga kangangexesha elithile. Emva kweNguquko yeGreen ngo-1979, iNtshona iyonke yayicinezela ngenxa yabathinjwa baseMelika. Ihlabathi lamaSunni layicinezela. Ngenkxaso edibeneyo yeNtshona kunye neSaudi Arabia, uSaddam waya kumbetha. I-Iran ne-Iran Kwiminyaka esibhozo enesiqingatha emva kwemfazwe, i-Iran yabulala abantu abangaphezu kwezigidi ezi-4.6.

Wabethwa kwezomkhosi, eyedwa kwezopolitiko, kwaye kunzima kakhulu kwezoqoqosho, kuba emva kwentlekele yesibini yeoli ngo-1979, abantu baseNtshona bayeka ushishino, kwaye ixabiso leoli lehla. I-Iran yayithembele kwioli, ngoko ibiye yezoqoqosho ixesha elide. Inzima kakhulu. Kodwa kule nkulungwane, ngoncedo lwabantu baseMelika, ngoku intlanzi enetyuwa iguqulwe kwaye iphila. Umzekelo, into yokuqala eyenziwa yiUnited States kukubulala utshaba lwayo oludala uSaddam.

I-Iran ayinalo olo xinzelelo lungako kukhuseleko, idiplomacy nayo itshintshile, kwaye amaxabiso eoyile anyukile kwiminyaka yakutshanje, kwaye uqoqosho lwayo luye lwaphila, ngoko ke i-Iran ngoku ikwimeko engcono kakhulu kunokuba yayinjalo kwiminyaka elishumi edlulileyo, kwaye ihlala inethemba kwikamva.

Ukongezelela, kutheni uSirayeli eyoyika ngokukhethekileyo?

Kuba kusenokwenzeka ukuba lelona lizwe kuphela kwilizwe lamaSilamsi elinesisongelo sokwenyani kuSirayeli kwixesha elizayo, abanye abantu abanalo ngokwenene obu buchule. Ngenxa yokuba uSirayeli eyoyika ngokukhethekileyo, iUnited States iphenjelelwa nguSirayeli, yaye ngoku kuyimfuneko ukuyilungisa.

Kodwa kungakhathaliseki ukuba iwa njani, i-Iran iya kuba ngumkhosi ozimeleyo we-Middle East kwaye idlale indima.

d. Thekhi

Umongameli waseTurkey u-Erdogan unebhongo kakhulu. Ufuna ukuphumeza i-neo-Ottomanism, eya kuzisa iinguqu ezininzi kuMbindi Mpuma.

Isine: Indlela yophuhliso kule minyaka ilishumi izayo

a.Ukufunda kwimbumba

Ngokusebenzisa isethi yedatha esembindini, ixabiso linokukhutshwa kwidatha. Kodwa njengoko umthamo wedatha usanda, i-data centralization iba nzima ngakumbi.

Isisombululo sale ngxaki yintsimi entsha yokufunda koomatshini, eyaziwa ngokuba yifederated learning. Esikhundleni sokuthumela idatha kwii-algorithms, ukufunda okudibeneyo kuthumela idatha kwii-algorithms.

Usenokuba ufumene izibonelelo zesifundo somdibaniso ngaphandle kokuqaphela. Xa uchwetheza umbhalo kwifowuni yakho, njengoko uchwetheza, indlela yongeniso ikunika iindlela ezininzi onokukhetha kuzo. Ezi ngcebiso zegalelo zenziwe ngenene yimodeli yokufunda ngomatshini.

Imithetho yabucala iyayithintela iapile, uGoogle, kunye nabanye ekuthumeleni imiyalezo yobuqu kwiindlela zabo zokufunda. Ke basebenzisa imfundo yomanyano ukuqeqesha imodeli kwifowuni yakho.

Izibonelelo zobumfihlo bomsebenzisi ziza ngeendleko zokusebenzisa i-algorithms kwisixhobo. Imfundo ye-Federal ifanelekile kwizicelo ezinenkxalabo malunga nobumfihlo.

b. E-imidlalo nolonwabo

I-Esports iya kuba lishishini elikhulu kunemidlalo eqhelekileyo.

"Siyi-basketball, siyi-NBA, siyi-ESPN encinci" - i-Netflix icacisa i-esports

Usenokumva ukapteni ethetha ngokufutshane emva komdlalo wesintu. Kwii-esports, iqela lonke lihlala lisasazwa ngqo. Oku kwenza kube lula kubabukeli ukuba baqonde ibali le-esports. Kwaye iinkampani zemidlalo zihlala zilungisa imithetho yomdlalo ukwenza ukuba ukonwabisa ngakumbi.

c. I-Blockchain kunye ne-bitcoin

I-Blockchain luphawu, kwaye ukuthembela kuyinzuzo yelo nqaku.

Kukho intetho eninzi malunga nesitshixo sokuzisa i-blockchain kwi-mainstream. Ulawulo oluphambili kusenzima. Ndiyakholelwa ukuba ukwamkelwa kwetekhnoloji ye-blockchain kuya kwenzeka kakhulu ngasemva kwekhonkco lobonelelo lweshishini.

Kunzima ukuguqula iinkqubo ezikhoyo kunye ne-blockchains. Ifuna inkxaso yabachaphazelekayo abaninzi kunye nokufumana idatha ethembekileyo ukusuka phantsi kwekhonkco ukwenzela ukwenza ikhonkco. Ukuze yamkelwe kwizinto eziqhelekileyo, ulawulo oluphambili, ukugcinwa kunye nokubuyisela kufuneka kulungiswe.

Ngokutsho kwe-bitcoin, ukuvuzwa kwabasebenzi basezimayini kunqunyulwa kwisiqingatha kuzo zonke iibhloko ze-210,000 ezigrunjiweyo, okubizwa ngokuba yi-halfing. Embindini we-2020, iya kuba sisiqingatha okwesithathu, apho abaninzi baqikelela ukuba kuya kukhokelela kwimarike entsha yenkomo. UJohn McAfee uqinisekile (uqikelela ukuba i-bitcoin iya kufikelela kwi-$ 500,000 ekupheleni kwe-2020). Ndiyathemba ukuba banyanisile.

I-Bitcoin yasilela njengemali, kodwa yaphumelela njengevenkile yexabiso.

d. akukho moto

Ukwamkelwa kweemoto ezingaqhubiyo kuya kucotha ngenxa yemiqobo yolawulo, kodwa ekugqibeleni ubungxowankulu buya kuphumelela.

Iindleko zothutho ziya kufutshane neqanda.

I-Netscape ibonelele ngeqonga le-Amazon, i-Google, ne-Facebook, kwaye iinqwelo zeenqwelo ezingenamqhubi ziya kuba liqonga elitsha eliza kuphuhliswa. Xa ixabiso lokuhanjiswa liwela kwi-zero, liya kuvula iimodeli zeshishini elitsha ezingenangqondo ngoku, ezinje:

Ukulungiswa kokutya okuqhutywa ngemoto ukuze ipizza yakho ibe ntsha kwi-oveni ngexesha ufika apho.

Ukuhanjiswa okuqikelelwayo, umyalelo uthunyelwa ngaphambi kokuba imveliso ifike.

Iofisi ehambayo ngexesha lokuhamba.

Indawo yokubonisa usapho ethi "ndincede ndenze isizukulwana" yenza ukubuyisela iimpahla kube lula njengokuzisa.

Sebenzisa izinto eziphantsi kosetyenziso oluyimfuneko.

Umthetho-siseko wokwenziwa ngexesha elifanelekileyo uya kuqhuba ukunyuka kokusetyenziswa kwangexesha.

e. inani labantu behlabathi liya kwanda ngebhiliyoni e-1 ngo-2030, kwaye imozulu iyonke iya kuqhubeka ishushu

Ngokwengxelo ye-UN yeSebe lezoQoqosho neNtlalo kwingxelo yabemi behlabathi ngo-2019, inani labantu behlabathi liza kufikelela kwi-8.5 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2030.

Inani labantu abalupheleyo likhula ngokukhawuleza, malunga nomntu omnye kwabasibhozo ngaphezulu kwama-65.

Kule minyaka ilishumi izayo, de kube sekupheleni kwenkulungwane yama-21, iAfrika iya kuba nabona bantu bakhula ngokukhawuleza ehlabathini.

Ngokutsho kweengcali zeZizwe Ezimanyeneyo, i-60 pesenti yabemi behlabathi iza kuhlala ezixekweni ngo-2030, kwaye inani lezixeko ezinabantu abasisigidi liza kwanda lisuka kuma-548 ngo-2018 liye kutsho kuma-706.

Ngo-2030, inani labantu abazelwe emva ko-2000 liya kuba ngaphezu kwe-2 yezigidigidi, nto leyo ebenza babe ngumqolo wezopolitiko, uqoqosho kunye nobomi bentlalo.

Ngo-2030, ubushushu behlabathi buzakunyuka nge-1.5 degrees celcius. Ukutshintsha kwemozulu kuya kuchaphazela kakhulu uqoqosho lwehlabathi. Ukutshintsha kwemozulu kuya kuxabisa i-2 yeebhiliyoni zeedola kwihlabathi kwimveliso elahlekileyo, ingxelo ezimeleyo. Ingxelo yebhanki yehlabathi ithi icandelo lezolimo e-Afrika lingabona ithuba lokukhula lilonke le-1 yetriliyoni.

f. I-e-commerce iyakhula

I-E-commerce iya kuba yeyona ndlela iphambili yorhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe kunye nenjini yokukhula koqoqosho.

Ngokwezibalo ze-unctad, umthamo wentengiso ye-e-commerce yehlabathi udlule kwi-29 yezigidi zezigidi zeedola ngo-2019, apho i-88% yayiyi-B2B kwaye i-12% yayiyi-B2C. Ubungakanani obupheleleyo be-B2C yayiyi-412 yeebhiliyoni zeedola, ngokukodwa e-China. I-China, i-Indiya, kunye noMzantsi Afrika ngawona mazwe akhula ngokukhawuleza kurhwebo lwe-e-commerce.

Iipesenti ezili-19.2 zabasebenzisi be-Intanethi baseRashiya basebenzisa i-e-commerce, ukusuka kumndilili wehlabathi weepesenti ezili-16. Iintlawulo eziphathwayo kungekudala ziya kuba jikelele kumazwe aneenkqubo ezingcono zebhanki. Ngokutsho kwe-ZDNet, iipesenti ze-86 zaseTshayina ngabasebenzisi be-wallet ye-intanethi, bebeka kuqala kwihlabathi. I-Indonesia, iThailand kunye nePhilippines ziphakathi kwamazwe ali-10 aphambili ehlabathi ukuba athathelwe ekhaya ngocingo, ngokutsho kwe-PWC. Iintlawulo eziphathwayo zisasazeka ngokukhawuleza kwihlabathi jikelele.

Zonke iintlobo zeempawu zibonisa ukuba i-B2C iya kuba yeyona ndlela iphambili yorhwebo lwe-elektroniki lwehlabathi. Ngokomzekelo, iqela leLazada, i-portal ye-e-commerce exhaswa ngemali ngu-Alibaba, ibhengeze ukuba iya kuxhasa oosomashishini be-e-commerce abazizigidi ezisi-8 kunye namashishini amancinci naphakathi kwi-Asia-mpuma ye-Asia ngo-2030.

Kule minyaka ilishumi izayo, uninzi lwabemi behlabathi luya kudityaniswa ngokunzulu kwinkqubo yetyala lemali.

Phantsi kwemodeli entsha yorhwebo, izohlwayo zezoqoqosho, ukungakhethi cala, kunye nokhuselo ziya kuphelelwa ngamandla kwaye zisilele ekuthinteleni ukunyuka koqoqosho lwehlabathi nolwengingqi.